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“Sometimes you have to take your medicine.” Trump’s words, not ours.
The child lock is off. Everything’s turning orange. No one knows what’s going on. Geopolitics is in a state of complete uncertainty. When does the good stuff kick in?
Wednesday 2nd April, the president-elect took what he coined ‘liberation day’ as his chance to announce ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on imported goods. By the following Wednesday, most of them were reversed, except for a bigger one slapped on China. Nothing says freedom like shaking the stock markets and gut-punching consumer confidence while inflation and interest rates hit the roof. And that’s all while the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe rage on. Tariffic timing, Donald!
J.P. Morgan stated we were 60% on our way to a recession; today we are down to 40%. What’s the number tomorrow? Who knows? But it probably won’t be pretty or reassuring.
One thing is for sure: for us B2B and B2C agencies, uncertain times make cautious hands. Budgets will be tightened. And it’s usually marketing that gets the slash. But we must remember that the smarter ones don’t sit, they get sharper. Warren Buffett said it best: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
Sure, it’s easier to say when you’re on the rich list. But the principle holds: always be prepared and ready to go against the grain. That’s how we’ve approached these two big burning questions.
How do we convince clients that marketing is still necessary and arguably, a necessity? And how, as a business, do we prepare for times of workflow recession?
Let’s take them in turn.
ANSWER ONE: PREPARE YOUR STRATEGY.
Prepare for the tightening of purse strings. Evolve your strategy to match the cash-conscious mindset.
At Amigo, two-thirds of our clients operate in the B2B space. In a downturn, the pool of active B2B buyers shrinks, from 5% to just 1%. That flips the ratio, 99% of the market becomes future buyers. So, while the 1% need to be nurtured, that 99%? Waiting in the uncertainty.
That means two things:
/ Nurture the 1% that are still buying.
/ Stay visible to the 99% who’ll be back.
History backs this: a McGraw-Hill study of 600 companies during ‘Reagan’s recession’ in 1980–1985 found that those which continued to advertise saw 256% higher sales than those who did not when the economy started recovering.
The reality is consumers won’t actually spend less, they just spend smarter. This is where a consistent message that’s propelled from a place of trust constantly hits the mark.
An example of this is the recent premiumisation of products such as legumes, with some price increases of up to 200% compared to own-brand products. Consumers tend to favour value; therefore, for some brands, a recession could be a defining moment to compete with discounted brands.
Remember this. Double down on existing customers and prepare for future buyers. Backing brand awareness keeps you in the eyeline. In a quieter market, your message gets more airtime, more clarity, more cut-through. And that pays off when the market bounces back.
ANSWER TWO: FORTIFY THE CORE.
Don’t forget about the input. This is how to prepare for times of workflow recession.
THE CLIENT
Not all industries cut back when times get tough. Healthcare, finance, and government are sectors that hold or shift budgets strategically. They’re steady hands in shaky markets. If you’re looking for short-term stability with long-term potential, this is where you focus.
YOUR VALUE
Now’s the time to sharpen your value proposition. Be clear on what you solve, who you solve it for, and why you do it better than anyone else. When you own a category, you become indispensable. And indispensable doesn’t get cut.
RESKILL TO REBOUND
Start by automating repetitive tasks with AI. These tools don’t replace creative thinking, but they do give your team back hours to focus on better strategy and creativity. Train your account managers to interpret data dashboards confidently, or get your creative team certified in AI-enhanced design tools like Adobe Firefly.
Encourage copywriters to dive into SEO writing or conversion copy techniques that directly impact ROI.
Those who reskill during downturns tend to rebound faster and grow more sustainably than those that don’t.
INVEST IN BRAND (especially now)
In a recession, the competition doesn’t disappear, it just gets louder for fewer buyers. That’s when brand matters most.
The IPA’s long-running research shows that brands who stick with strong, memorable campaigns through a downturn emerge with higher margins, stronger market share, and lasting consumer trust.
Take it from Nielsen: “The solution isn’t to slash the budget, but to optimise media mix and invest in channels that are performing well. Finding the right balance ensures that spending is properly allocated for reach, efficiency and frequency.”
LESSONS FROM THE BOLD
Recessions hit differently depending on your size, sector, and situation. But there are many examples where this smarter approach to marketing can take you upstream, even when the numbers say otherwise:
Bear Coffee
A high-street disruptor with small-town smarts. Co-founder Craig Bunting spotted a gap. Big chains were impersonal, but hipster cafés didn’t translate beyond London. Bear leaned into what made them different: work-friendly spaces, a warm welcome, and a clear point of view. The result? A brand built to last, not just trend.
Yorkshire Tea
While others pulled spend during the 2008 recession, Yorkshire Tea doubled down on brand. Campaigns like Everything Stops for Yorkshire Tea gave the brand an unmistakable voice and an emotional hook. Sales soared 66%, even as the category shrank. Proof that humour, heritage, and consistency still win.
Citigroup
Not the first brand you'd expect to thrive post-2008. But instead of retreating, they leaned into community-led branding backing real services that aligned with client values: trust, transparency, and empathy. It wasn’t about product. It was about presence. And it paid off.
CONCLUSION:
How’s the medicine tasting now? Probably still very unknown, bitter and scary. But let’s remember that we have been here before. Recessions aren’t here to stay. There’s one every decade, after all.
*Insert very muted celebrations.*
For B2B and B2C creative agencies, we only need to look at history as our reminder:
When brands go dark, they pay for it.
Sales drop 16% in just one year. And 80% of companies that cut marketing during a recession struggle to bounce back to their former size and strength.
When brands stay agile, they win.
Those who adapt their strategy, invest in brand and focus on value don’t just survive. They rebound stronger.
So, don’t just weather the storm. Prepare to build through it.
To go back to Warren Buffett: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
We should add that this time, the bright orange tan isn’t optional. 